Becoming a billionaire is less unlikely than you think

What are the odds you or I, or anyone else, have of becoming a billionaire? It’s probably higher than you think.

Looking to the richest among us makes an interesting case study, because these subjects provide insight into the most compelling business models in each generation. (Because the thing the wealthiest Americans have in common is that they almost all got there by being business rich.)

As of 2025, the world has over 3000 billionaires. Of which, the majority live in America.  In fact, the odds of an American being a billionaire are ~1 in 355,000, or far better than the extremely long odds of winning a Powerball lottery (approximately 1 in 300 million)! Of course, many of the world’s richest people inherited their wealth, so they might be excluded for our purposes of becoming a billionaire.

A better question might be this:

What are the odds of being a self-made billionaire? And the answer might surprise you.

The rise of the billionaire

In the most recent ranking of America's Forbes 400, a whopping 70% were reported to be self-made billionaires, which is an astonishing statistic. The amount of wealth created since 1970 is completely without precedent. One would have to look to the same period of time a hundred years earlier for a comparison on productivity and creativity. Except instead of names like Bezos, Musk, Gates, and Buffet, one might have spoken of Rockefeller, Carnegie, and Morgan.

Still, the numbers of the world’s most affluent today dwarf those of the Gilded Age, or what is also called the Age of the Second Industrial Revolution. Of course, much of the difference in the magnitude of today’s superrich lies in population growth. Much is also owed to enhancements in capital formation, including resources such as The Small Business Administration, venture capital, and pervasive private equity firms. 

These resources, together with technological advances, gave rise to what is known today as the Third Industrial Revolution, with economic and productivity growth propelled by digital and technology advances.

What the numbers show about becoming a billionaire

The numbers show that becoming a billionaire is not only easier than winning the Powerball, it’s also statistically easier than making a living on the PGA Tour.

Getting into the NBA is nearly equally as hard, with just 450 players scattered across 30 teams, and each earning a median salary of approximately $6.6 million in the 2025/2026 season. Getting into the NFL is slightly easier, with about 1,900 players and a far lower median salary of $860,000.

Yet, you would be right in labeling all these people as virtual "unicorns" or mythical creatures, which is also a term used today for start-up businesses with valuations of a billion dollars or more.

Odds of success

To my way of thinking, the real action in business lies in the middle markets, which I would characterize as companies having from $10 million to $1 billion in revenue. This is where most of the job growth and business creativity is in the United States. To be among the group of thousands of middle market businesses is broadly attainable.

By contrast, smaller companies often serve as vehicles for independent employment, which can be personally rewarding but generally less likely to generate real wealth.

Now, back to our question: If you can harness an idea and transform it into a business model, what are the odds of success? It turns out the odds of having a business that survives at least 5 years are about the same as the odds of consistently breaking 100 at golf. 

The odds of business survival for longer than 10 years are somewhat better than regularly posting golf scores under 90. So what does this mean for your odds of becoming a billionaire? Well, of those businesses that survive 10 years or longer, they typically have two important things in common:

‍

1. They survive, and

2. Having survived, they become worth more than they cost to create. These are the things that lie at the heart of wealth creation. 

In other words, they lead to the kind of “business rich” success that helps business leaders become billionaires.  It’s not all about “chance.” It’s about understanding the business fundamentals and variables that turbocharge wealth.

And that’s what I’ll continue getting into in future articles and my YouTube channel.

If you need to know now, you can pick up The Value Equation – I don’t hold anything back, so let’s see if we can get you on the right track for becoming a billionaire.

‍